How Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood actually settle contracts — different sources, different timing, different dispute processes.
Platforms
3
Categories
6+
Updated
Apr 2026
Focus
Settlement
The key takeaway from this page
Understanding resolution differences
A Kalshi Fed rate market at 74¢ and a Polymarket Fed rate market at 68¢ might not be mispricing the same event — they might be resolving different conditions.
For a deeper dive on how resolution works across all platforms, see How Markets Settle →
Resolution mechanics compared
Select a market category to see resolution source, rule, timing, and dispute path side by side.
Deep dive into each platform
Critical settlement distinctions
Kalshi settles political markets same-night on AP call. Polymarket runs a 2-hour UMA challenge window (48–96h DVM vote if disputed). For fast-resolving events, Kalshi releases capital significantly faster — important if you're sizing large or want to redeploy quickly.
Kalshi disputes go to an internal committee under CFTC oversight. Polymarket disputes go to decentralized UMA token-holder vote. Neither is faster for contested outcomes — Kalshi is more centralized; Polymarket is more transparent but slower.
Even for the same event, Kalshi and Polymarket write different resolution criteria. A price gap between platforms may reflect real differences in what resolves the contract — not a pure arbitrage. Always compare the contract wording before assuming you found edge.
Real-world resolution examples
Political markets often look identical across platforms but can resolve off different triggers: an AP call, an official certification, or a platform-specific determination rule. Kalshi explicitly tells traders to rely on each market's listed source agency and rules, not just the event headline.
Economic markets usually resolve to the designated official release named in the contract rules. On both regulated exchanges and crypto-native venues, the exact publication named in the rules matters more than a trader's general expectation about the event.
Crypto and weather contracts are the clearest example of source risk. Kalshi crypto contracts settle to CF Benchmarks RTI averages, not a retail chart. Weather contracts can depend on a specific station, not a citywide app reading. Polymarket similarly names a precise Binance candle or named weather source in the rules.
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