Last updated: April 2026
Category GuideTrade presidential elections, Senate races, policy votes, and global political events. Here's how political prediction markets work, where to trade, and what to watch out for.
Political prediction markets are binary event contracts where you buy or sell shares in an outcome. If the event occurs, the contract resolves at $1 (YES). If it does not, it resolves at $0 (NO). The price at any moment represents the market's implied probability of that outcome.
Political markets were controversial in the US for years. Kalshi received CFTC approval in November 2020 and launched in 2021.Polymarket relaunched for US users in December 2025 (invite-only, sports markets only; other categories coming soon) via its CFTC-regulated entity QCX LLC — currently offering sports markets only, with politics and other categories coming soon. Interactive Brokers (ForecastEx) also lists politics markets as a CFTC-regulated DCM. Robinhood and Coinbase offer Kalshi-powered political event contracts.
CFTC Authorization: Kalshi isCFTC DCM + DCO (since November 2020).Polymarket operates via QCX LLC (CFTC DCM (via QCX LLC)). Kalshi is the primary US platform for political prediction markets as of early 2026. QCX LLC's current U.S. venue remains sports-only, with political markets listed as coming soon. The global Polymarket platform has significantly deeper liquidity for political markets but cannot be accessed by US residents.
See full regulatory history →Elections, primaries, electoral college outcomes.
Will the Democratic candidate win the 2028 presidential election?
Congressional races, majority control, special elections.
Will Democrats retake the Senate majority in 2026?
UK, France, Germany, Israel, and major international contests.
Will the current UK Prime Minister win re-election?
Budget, debt ceiling, major legislation outcomes.
Will the US debt ceiling be raised before the deadline?
Nomination outcomes, landmark ruling predictions.
Will the next Supreme Court nominee be confirmed?
Confirmation votes, appointment outcomes.
Will the nominated Treasury Secretary be confirmed?
Presidential approval thresholds, polling crossover markets.
Will presidential approval exceed 50% by Q4?
Treaty ratification, ceasefire agreements, sanctions.
Will a formal ceasefire be announced in the current conflict?
| Platform | Political Coverage | US Legal? | Fees / Limits | Notable Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | US elections, Senate/House, policy votes, CFTC-authorized political contracts | YesCFTC-regulated DCM | ≤1.75¢/contract (formula-based) | Deepest US event order books; politics/policy markets are zero-fee |
| Polymarket (International) | Global elections, international political events (International only — Polymarket US is sports-only; politics expected 2026) | International only for politicsCFTC DCM via QCX LLC | Sports 0.75% peak; Crypto 1.80% peak; Politics/Finance/Tech 1.00%; most fee-free at extremes | Deepest global political liquidity (International); US version does not yet offer politics |
| Interactive Brokers (ForecastEx) | US elections, policy votes, international political events | YesCFTC-regulated DCM (ForecastEx) | Via IBKR brokerage account | Institutional-grade platform; politics is a core category alongside economics |
| Robinhood | US elections, policy votes (via Kalshi) | YesRoutes through Kalshi (CFTC DCM) | $0.02/contract | Familiar brokerage interface; Kalshi-powered politics markets |
| Coinbase | US elections, policy votes (via Kalshi) | YesRoutes through Kalshi (CFTC DCM) | Via Coinbase account | 49 states (NV blocked by Mar 2026 preliminary injunction); Kalshi-powered politics markets |
| PredictIt | US federal elections, congressional races, gubernatorial contests | YesCFTC No-Action Letter (since 2014) | $3,500 per contract (revised 2025) | Long track record since 2014, granular congressional markets; academic research framework |
Congressional scrutiny of prediction markets intensified in early 2026. The BETS OFF Act (Sen. Chris Murphy / Rep. Greg Casar, introduced March 17, 2026) would ban prediction markets from offering contracts on war, terrorism, assassination, and events where someone knows or controls the outcome. A separate Merkley/Klobuchar bill (introduced March 5, 2026) would ban elected officials, the president, and vice president from trading event contracts. Currently there is no federal law preventing politicians from trading markets about outcomes they may have inside knowledge about.
This is why contract transparency and resolution source disclosure matter more in political markets than any other category. When you cannot verify that prices reflect public information only, the trust foundation of the market is weakened.
PredictionMarkets.us tracks this legislation. Multiple bills (BETS OFF Act, Merkley/Klobuchar bill, DEATH BETS Act) are pending. Until one passes, trading by political insiders remains legal but contested. Always review the resolution criteria and consider whether thin order books might reflect information asymmetry.
Kalshi uses an internal resolution team that follows CFTC standards. Polymarket uses the UMA decentralized oracle, which can be disputed through an on-chain process. PredictIt uses an internal moderation team. Each platform publishes resolution criteria per contract.
For electoral races: most platforms resolve on the first call from a major outlet (AP, Fox, NBC, or CNN). For policy votes: official Congressional Record or presidential signing/veto. For approval markets: published polling data from specified sources on specified dates.
Markets typically hold resolution until the official canvass is certified or the legal dispute period expires. Platforms do NOT resolve on election night calls alone for contested or close races. Expect 1–6 weeks of open positions following a contested election.
Most contracts void or resolve NO if a candidate withdraws before the election, is disqualified, or dies. Edge cases vary significantly by platform and contract. Always read the full resolution criteria for the specific contract before trading.
Resolution rules vary per contract. Always read the full resolution criteria before trading.
Full guide: How markets settle →Order books deepen and spreads tighten around debates, primary results, and election night. This is when price discovery is most efficient — and when large moves happen fastest.
Incumbents are historically over-priced in early trading due to name recognition bias. Challenger contracts often offer better value in the 6–12 months before an election.
Sharp price moves after a single debate performance or news cycle often fade within 48–72 hours as the market re-prices to underlying fundamentals.
A contract at 95¢ can only earn 5¢ if it resolves YES. The downside is 95¢. At 90¢+, the risk-reward is rarely favorable unless you have strong timing conviction.
Political markets are event contracts. Position size accordingly. A 10% allocation to a single political binary is typically too concentrated.
Risk note: Political markets can stay mispriced for months. Structural biases, thin order books, and information asymmetry are real. Do not overweight your certainty on any single political outcome.
Prediction market prices moved in real-time during election night faster than news network projections. Markets had priced Clinton at 80–90% through most of the night before reversing sharply as results came in from key swing states.
The most-traded international political prediction market event of the decade. Markets showed near-certainty of Remain heading into the vote; overnight results caused the single largest political market swing ever recorded at the time.
Platforms held resolution for six weeks after Election Day while official canvassing and certification completed. This was the first major test of how regulated platforms handle contested election resolution timelines.
The largest political prediction market in US history by volume. Markets tracked polling aggregators closely but provided real-time liquidity that polls could not match during rapid news cycles.
Compare every platform available to US traders.
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