How do mentions markets settle?

Settlement is based on the official earnings call transcript. The resolution source searches the transcript for the exact term specified in the contract. An exact text match resolves YES; absence resolves NO. Paraphrases or synonyms typically do not count unless the contract rules specify otherwise.

Are mentions markets just gambling?

Mentions markets have a research edge that pure gambling does not. Historical mention frequency, product launch cycles, FDA approval timelines, and analyst preview notes all create informational advantages for informed traders. The contracts are offered on CFTC-regulated exchanges.

What edge exists in mentions markets?

Edges come from tracking historical mention frequency across prior earnings calls, monitoring product launch or regulatory milestones that force discussion, reading sellside analyst preview notes that telegraph likely Q&A topics, and understanding the difference between prepared remarks and analyst Q&A sections.

Which platforms offer mentions markets?

Kalshi is currently the primary platform offering earnings mentions markets. These contracts are available to US-based traders on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange.

Can mentions markets be manipulated?

While the underlying earnings calls are controlled by corporate management, manipulating them to affect a prediction market contract would likely violate securities regulations. The greater risk for traders is settlement disputes around transcript timing or edge cases like partial mentions and abbreviations.

NEW MARKET TYPE

What Are Earnings Mentions Markets?

Q: What are earnings mentions markets?

Earnings mentions markets are prediction market contracts that resolve based on whether a specific word or phrase is spoken during a company's earnings call. If the term appears in the official transcript, the contract resolves YES. If it doesn't, it resolves NO.

Betting on words, not outcomes. These contracts resolve based on whether a specific term gets said during a company's earnings call.

How It Works

Contract Listed

A platform lists a contract: "Will [TERM] be said during [COMPANY]'s earnings call?"

Earnings Call Happens

The company holds its quarterly earnings call. A live transcript is generated.

Transcript Search

Settlement source searches the official transcript. Term found = YES resolves. Not found = NO resolves.

Types of Mentions Markets

💊Pharma

Drug names, therapy brands, pipeline compounds

e.g., Carvykti, Ozempic, Keytruda

🤖Tech

Product names, AI features, platform launches

e.g., Copilot, Gemini, Vision Pro

🏦Finance

Regulatory terms, compliance language, risk factors

e.g., Basel III, credit loss, provision

📉Macro / Fed

Economic keywords, policy language, forward guidance

e.g., Recession, tariff, soft landing

🛒Consumer

Brand names, product launches, partnership mentions

e.g., Prime Video, Apple Pay, Rivian

₿Crypto

Token names, compliance terms, blockchain products

e.g., Bitcoin, stablecoin, DeFi

Why Prices Aren't Random

Historical mention frequency matters. Some terms appear on earnings calls quarter after quarter. Traders track these patterns across prior transcripts to estimate probability.
Earnings call scripts are partially predictable. Prepared remarks are drafted in advance by IR teams. Key products and initiatives are almost always mentioned in prepared remarks, while Q&A sections are harder to predict.
Product launches and approvals force discussion. If a drug just received FDA approval or a product just launched, management will almost certainly address it.
Analyst questions are semi-predictable. Sellside analyst preview notes often telegraph which topics will come up in Q&A. Informed traders read these before pricing mentions contracts.

⚠️ The near-certainty trap

When a term has been mentioned on many consecutive calls, contracts often price above 90¢. That doesn't mean it's free money — the risk/reward at that price is skewed heavily against you. Why 99¢ bets aren't free money →

Settlement & Edge Cases

What counts as a "mention"? Typically an exact text match in the official transcript. Paraphrases, abbreviations, or synonyms usually don't count unless the contract rules explicitly include them.
Delayed or rescheduled calls. If a company postpones its earnings call, the contract settlement is typically delayed to match. Check contract rules for how long the window stays open.
CEO skips prepared remarks. Rare, but if management skips to Q&A, terms that would have appeared in prepared remarks may not be mentioned at all.
Word appears only in Q&A. Still counts. Settlement is based on the full transcript, not just prepared remarks — unless the contract specifies otherwise.

For more on how prediction markets determine outcomes, see How settlement sources work →

Risk Factors

Where to Trade

Kalshi — Primary venue for mentions markets

Regulatory basis: CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM)
Access: US-based traders, 18+
Trading fees: See platform for current fee schedule
Settlement: Based on official earnings call transcripts

Frequently Asked Questions

Contract Listed

A platform lists a contract: "Will [TERM] be said during [COMPANY]'s earnings call?"

Earnings Call Happens

The company holds its quarterly earnings call. A live transcript is generated.

Transcript Search

Settlement source searches the official transcript. Term found = YES resolves. Not found = NO resolves.

Types of Mentions Markets

💊Pharma

Drug names, therapy brands, pipeline compounds

e.g., Carvykti, Ozempic, Keytruda

🤖Tech

Product names, AI features, platform launches

e.g., Copilot, Gemini, Vision Pro

🏦Finance

Regulatory terms, compliance language, risk factors

e.g., Basel III, credit loss, provision

📉Macro / Fed

Economic keywords, policy language, forward guidance

e.g., Recession, tariff, soft landing

🛒Consumer

Brand names, product launches, partnership mentions

e.g., Prime Video, Apple Pay, Rivian

₿Crypto

Token names, compliance terms, blockchain products

e.g., Bitcoin, stablecoin, DeFi

Why Prices Aren't Random

Historical mention frequency matters. Some terms appear on earnings calls quarter after quarter. Traders track these patterns across prior transcripts to estimate probability.
Earnings call scripts are partially predictable. Prepared remarks are drafted in advance by IR teams. Key products and initiatives are almost always mentioned in prepared remarks, while Q&A sections are harder to predict.
Product launches and approvals force discussion. If a drug just received FDA approval or a product just launched, management will almost certainly address it.
Analyst questions are semi-predictable. Sellside analyst preview notes often telegraph which topics will come up in Q&A. Informed traders read these before pricing mentions contracts.

⚠️ The near-certainty trap

Settlement & Edge Cases

What counts as a "mention"? Typically an exact text match in the official transcript. Paraphrases, abbreviations, or synonyms usually don't count unless the contract rules explicitly include them.
Delayed or rescheduled calls. If a company postpones its earnings call, the contract settlement is typically delayed to match. Check contract rules for how long the window stays open.
CEO skips prepared remarks. Rare, but if management skips to Q&A, terms that would have appeared in prepared remarks may not be mentioned at all.
Word appears only in Q&A. Still counts. Settlement is based on the full transcript, not just prepared remarks — unless the contract specifies otherwise.

For more on how prediction markets determine outcomes, see How settlement sources work →

What Are Earnings Mentions Markets?

How It Works

Contract Listed

Earnings Call Happens

Transcript Search

Types of Mentions Markets

💊Pharma

🤖Tech

🏦Finance

📉Macro / Fed

🛒Consumer

₿Crypto

Why Prices Aren't Random

Settlement & Edge Cases

Risk Factors

Thin liquidity = wide spreads

Settlement disputes (transcript lag)

Corporate IR surprises

Partial fill risk on small books

Where to Trade

Kalshi — Primary venue for mentions markets

Frequently Asked Questions