What’s happening, when, and what it could change for you. Federal actions, state actions, and court cases side by side on one timeline.
This page lists every regulatory, legislative, and litigation deadline in the US prediction market space for the next 90 days. Federal actions, state actions, and court cases on one timeline, with a direct link to the primary source for each row.
Every row is a date + event + primary-source URL. Rows are added when a primary source first publishes the date. Rows are moved between lanes (next 14 days → past) on each publishing cycle. The page is re-rendered from this JSON on every build.
Priority lane — the federal + state stack closing in the same window.
What happens: Warsh testifies publicly before the Senate Banking Committee on his nomination as Fed Chair. His disclosed Polymarket stake is likely to be raised on the record given AP’s pre-hearing coverage.
What it could change: Nothing rules-wise today — it’s a hearing, not a vote. But the record is set for any future Fed-chair conflict-of-interest framing about prediction-market holdings.
What happens: CTF Exchange V2 + pUSD collateral cutover. ~1 hour downtime window. Open limit orders wiped; positions and balances preserved.
What it could change: Nothing rules-wise. Platform-infra only. Listed here because it affects trader workflow in the same 10-day window as the federal + state regulatory stack.
What happens: Live virtual town hall hosted by the National Conference of State Legislatures. Moderated by state legislators Rep. Michael Meredith (KY, co-sponsor of HB 904) and Sen. David Blount (MS). Framing question per NCSL: whether putting money on the outcome of an event is a financial transaction or a form of wagering.
What it could change: Nothing directly — NCSL is a trade association for state legislators, not a regulator. It matters because it is the state-legislator class coordinating a shared policy frame one business day before the federal comment deadline closes.
What happens: The 45-day public comment window on the CFTC’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for event contracts closes end-of-day. After this, CFTC staff review comments and eventually issue a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (timing: months, not weeks).
What it could change: This is the input phase for rewriting how event contracts are regulated. Any US person can file a comment; comments are part of the public record and influence the shape of any follow-on rule.
Key stack: one business day separates Apr 29 ↔ Apr 30.
The NCSL state-legislator town hall (Wed Apr 29) runs one business day before the CFTC’s federal ANPRM comment-period close (Thu Apr 30). We list both rows on the same lane so the stack is visible. We do not assert coordination beyond the dates themselves.
Mid-horizon — state statutory clocks, early earnings, next TRO windows.
What happens: Typical Q1 reporting window for DraftKings. Prediction-market positioning and any CFTC-facing comments from management tend to surface on the call.
What it could change: Nothing rules-wise. Included as a signal of how the large sportsbook operators are publicly framing prediction markets in the same month as the ANPRM.
What happens: Next scheduled status window for the Arizona Department of Gaming temporary restraining order proceeding against Kalshi/Robinhood. Dates subject to docket updates.
What it could change: If the TRO is extended or converted to a preliminary injunction, Arizona access for Kalshi-powered event contracts could change materially. If dissolved, existing access continues.
Longer horizon — amicus windows, circuit arguments, status hearings.
What happens: HB 904 was enacted on April 14, 2026 via legislative override of Gov. Beshear’s April 13, 2026 veto (House 67-7, Senate 26-5). Under Kentucky’s standard non-emergency effective-date rule, non-emergency bills take effect on the first day after the expiration of 90 days from the final day of the legislative session. Exact date pending primary-source verification against the final legislative-session adjournment record and bill text.
What it could change: When this effective date hits, Kentucky is the first enacted state statute specifically reaching the sportsbook ↔ prediction-market crossover question in the US. Triggers any geofence work by platforms covered by the statute.
What happens: Outer edge of the standard 45-day en banc rehearing petition window following the Third Circuit’s April 6, 2026 panel ruling for Kalshi. If New Jersey files, the timeline extends; if not, the panel ruling stands absent a Supreme Court petition.
What it could change: A granted rehearing would reopen the CEA preemption question for the Third Circuit. A denial (or no filing) locks in the panel result.
What happens: Expected oral-argument window in the Nevada Gaming Control Board case on appeal to the Ninth Circuit, following the March 2026 remand to state court. Exact date set by court scheduling order.
What it could change: A Ninth Circuit reversal on remand could re-federalize the CEA-preemption question for western states; affirmance would leave the dispute in state court.
What happens: Expected amicus-brief deadline window in the Maryland case challenging Kalshi’s sports event contracts. Amicus schedule follows the court’s briefing order and is subject to change.
What it could change: Amicus filings by CFTC, sportsbook operators, state AGs, or industry trade groups on either side can reshape the record without changing the named parties.
What happens: Rolling window for status hearings across the CFTC-involved state cases in Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Federal dockets typically schedule status conferences every 60–90 days once active.
What it could change: Status hearings can produce scheduling orders, briefing dates, or rulings on pending motions that move the underlying litigation calendar forward.
Summary snapshot of the 6 most-recent federal rows. Full docket (with every filed party and next-date) lives on the federal tracker page.
Summary snapshot of the 6 most-recent state rows. Full tracker with per-state user-impact lives on the state tracker page.
Step-by-step walkthrough on filing an ANPRM comment on regulations.gov before the Apr 30 close.
NCSL hosts the virtual town hall at 1 PM ET on Wed Apr 29 and typically posts a recording afterward.
Per-state breakdown of what enforcement, litigation, or legislation means for your access as a user.
What this tracker will not do:
Update cadence: Refreshed on every publishing cycle and immediately on any court docket or primary-source update.
