How Concentrated Is Prediction-Market Profit?

Concentration metrics describe the shape of the profit distribution: whether a small cohort of accounts captures a disproportionate share of realized gains. That is structurally different from asking what percentage of users or wallets are profitable. One trader can run many wallets, one desk can control many accounts, and one account can represent tooling or capital that ordinary users do not have.

Skill-based concentration therefore says more about clustering, market-making, speed, and repeated participation than it says about the average trader's win rate. A market can have some profitable retail users and still have a fat-tailed distribution where the largest profits sit in a tiny top cohort. This page keeps those axes separate so concentration evidence does not get flattened into a claim about winners, losers, or the wisdom of crowds.