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    1. Home
    2. Guide
    3. How Prediction Market Payouts Work

    How Prediction Market Payouts Work

    From market resolution to cash in your account — a plain-language guide.

    Kalshi
    Polymarket
    Robinhood / Coinbase

    The Three-Stage Payout Lifecycle

    1

    Resolution

    The market closes. An oracle (NOAA data, AP election call, price feed, etc.) confirms the outcome. Winning contracts are identified automatically.

    2

    Settlement

    The platform calculates payouts. Winning contracts pay out at $1.00 face value. Fees are deducted: Kalshi up to 1.75¢/contract (entry only), Polymarket most markets fee-free (crypto up to 1.56%, select sports up to 0.44%), Robinhood $0.02/contract per side (both buy and sell).

    3

    Credit

    Funds move into your account balance. Timing varies by platform. On Coinbase-linked Kalshi accounts, a secondary sync step can add a display delay.

    Payout Timing by Platform

    Timing estimates below are sourced from official platform documentation. Settlement timing can vary by market category and oracle source — treat these as typical ranges, not guarantees.

    PlatformPayout MethodTypical Timing
    KalshiCash (USD)Most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known (often ~3 hours). Funds credit to your account balance immediately after settlement.
    PolymarketUSDC (crypto stablecoin)Uncontested resolutions: minimum 2 hours after the UMA oracle fires. Resolutions that are disputed and escalated to a UMA token holder vote can take significantly longer.
    RobinhoodCash (USD, brokerage)Up to 2 business days for proceeds to become available for withdrawal. Funds transfer from Robinhood Derivatives to your investing account, which may add a display delay.
    Coinbase (via Kalshi)Cash (USD)Two-step: Kalshi settles first, then Coinbase display syncs. Display lag is common.

    How Resolution Triggers Your Payout

    Platform-specific gotchas: Settlement timing can vary with market category, oracle source, and account type. Coinbase-linked accounts have an extra display-sync step that can cause visible confusion before funds arrive. When in doubt, wait a few hours before contacting support — most display discrepancies resolve on their own. If your problem is not payout timing but an IBKR or ForecastEx tax document that seems disconnected from your net result, use this ForecastEx 1099 reconciliation explainer instead.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Related Guides

    Payout Calculator

    Calculate exact hold-to-resolution and sell-early payouts.

    Coinbase Balance Issues

    Why Coinbase balances look wrong after resolution.

    Why Settlement Sources Differ

    What you see on a chart vs. what actually determines your payout.

    When a Market Resolves Wrong

    What recourse you have if you believe a resolution was incorrect.

    A note on timing estimates

    Timing figures above are sourced from official platform documentation as of April 2026 (Kalshi Help Center, Polymarket official docs). These are typical ranges, not contractual SLAs — actual settlement can vary by market category and oracle source. Robinhood timing is from secondary sources pending an official Robinhood support page. When in doubt, wait a few hours before contacting support — most display discrepancies resolve on their own.