Prices can move before the press conference ends. Here is the exact sequence, who is causing it, and how to separate real signal from a thin-book fakeout.
Illustrative sequence only. These timestamps and price moves are teaching examples, not verified historical ticks.
Liquidity is already thin because traders are waiting for the first concrete policy line.
Illustrative setup only
The first direct line changes the base case and pushes traders to reprice immediately.
Illustrative move: tariff market 68¢ → 74¢
A stricter-than-expected detail hits cross-asset markets, including oil-sensitive contracts.
Illustrative spike in oil-linked probabilities
Follow-up language softens the first interpretation and triggers a partial reversal.
Illustrative pullback after an overreaction
Order flow slows as traders compare the quote tape with transcript fragments and headlines.
Market starts stabilizing
A new consensus forms once the full statement is digested across platforms.
New baseline holds above the pre-event level
Speed: Under 1 second
Automated systems ingest transcript snippets, headline feeds, and order-book changes before most humans finish the sentence.
Speed: 5 to 30 seconds
Discretionary traders react on mobile or desktop after hearing the line, checking the market, and deciding whether it matters.
Speed: Minutes
Funds and desks adjust broader exposure after the first spike, especially when related macro or commodity risk moves with it.
1. Was there a verifiable statement or headline?
Yes points toward real information. No means you may just be seeing a thin-book burst.
2. Did the move hold for more than 10 minutes?
If the price snaps back fast, that is usually noise, not consensus.
3. Did both Kalshi and Polymarket move?
Independent cross-platform repricing is stronger evidence than a one-venue jump.
Speech-to-text systems and low-latency order entry mean faster traders can price in a line before you finish hearing it. By the time a retail trader hits buy, the information edge may already be gone.
Read the exchange math explainer →This section explains the structure of a live-event repricing sequence. We do not display historical price, timestamp, or contract examples here until the source records are complete.
| Platform | Live refresh | Order types | Algo API available? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | DATA PENDING VERIFICATION | market, limit | Yes |
| Polymarket | DATA PENDING VERIFICATION | market, limit | Yes |
| IB ForecastEx | DATA PENDING VERIFICATION | market, limit, stop | Yes |
