5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour BTC and ETH direction markets — the mechanics, fees, resolution sources, and when the math breaks.
Timeframes
3
Assets
BTC + ETH
Updated
Apr 2026
Fee Model
Taker
The key takeaway from this page
5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour BTC and ETH direction markets — the mechanics, the fee math, the resolution source, and the exact conditions under which “boring but effective” short-duration approaches stop clearing their own costs.
This page explains how these markets work. It is not a strategy, not a recommendation, and not investment advice. PredictionMarkets.US does not sell signals, alerts, or bot subscriptions, and does not earn referral revenue from Polymarket.
Each market asks a single question: will the price of BTC/USDT (or ETH/USDT, and in 15-minute markets SOL and XRP) be higher at the end of this window than at the start? Shares are priced between 0 cents and 100 cents. The winning side pays $1 per share at resolution; the losing side pays $0.
Launch
2026-02-12
Assets covered
BTC
Resolution source
Chainlink BTC/USD price feed
Fee at 50¢ (curve peak)
approximately 1.56% of trade value at the 50/50 peak of the fee curve
Launch
2025-10-20
Assets covered
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP
Resolution source
Chainlink BTC/USD and ETH/USD price feeds
Fee at 50¢ (curve peak)
approximately 1.56% of trade value at the 50/50 peak of the fee curve
Launch
Primary-source verification pending
Assets covered
BTC, ETH
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open vs close (per live market-page FAQ)
Fee status
Hourly crypto markets are currently fee-free per docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees as of lastVerified. A change to this field requires primary-source re-verification before ship.
Oracle provider (5-min and 15-min)
Chainlink price feeds — 5-min and 15-min markets
docs.polymarket.comHourly resolution provider
Binance BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open vs close (per live market-page FAQ on live hourly markets)
Flat candle behavior (open = close)
Up — per Polymarket live market-page FAQ verbatim: 'if the closing price is greater than OR EQUAL to the opening price, the outcome is Up.'
polymarket.comTaker fees on Polymarket follow a curve: highest near 50/50 pricing, falling toward zero at the extremes. The 5-minute and 15-minute direction markets are fee-enabled; the 1-hour markets are fee-free as of the last verified documentation check.
| Timeframe | Taker fee? | Fee at 50¢ (curve peak) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-minute | Yes | approximately 1.56% of trade value at the 50/50 peak of the fee curve | docs.polymarket.com |
| 15-minute | Yes | approximately 1.56% of trade value at the 50/50 peak of the fee curve | docs.polymarket.com |
| 1-hour | No (as of last verification) | $0 | polymarket.com |
An illustrative taker trade of 100 shares at $0.50 on a fee-enabled 15-minute BTC Up-or-Down market incurs a fee of approximately $1.56 — about 3.12% of the trade's value at the 50/50 peak of the fee curve. The same trade on a 1-hour BTC Up-or-Down market incurs no taker fee.
Illustrative only. Round-trip (buy + sell both as taker) approximately doubles the fee drag.
docs.polymarket.com/trading/feesThe same up/down call on a 15-minute market pays approximately 1.56% of trade value in taker fees at the 50/50 curve peak. The same call on a 1-hour market, at the same price, pays no taker fee. A 'boring but effective' approach that works on 1-hour markets can turn unprofitable on 15-minute ones solely because of fee drag, not prediction skill.
If a trader buys and sells both as taker orders before resolution, taker fees apply on both sides. A round-trip near 50 cents on a fee-enabled market costs roughly 3.12% of trade value at the curve peak — more than the gross return most short-duration direction calls produce.
A high win rate on a short sample is not the same as positive expected value. If per-trade fees exceed the average per-trade net return, every additional cycle is a loss in expectation — regardless of hit rate.
A flat candle — open price exactly equal to close price — resolves Up per the verbatim live market-page FAQ. This is not a push or refund. Holding Down through a flat window resolves against the Down position.
| Date | Field | From | To | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | page | — | initial | docs.polymarket.com | Initial page shipped. Verified against docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees, /changelog, /crypto/hourly, /crypto/15M, and live Bitcoin Up-or-Down market FAQ. lastVerified set. |
Audit cadence: weekly, plus post-V2-cutover re-verification. This page refuses 27 banned or non-primary domains; see our accuracy policy for the full list.
PredictionMarkets.US does not characterize, rank, or recommend any short-duration trading approach. This page describes mechanics and fee structure only. Outbound links are editorial references, not affiliate routes. See the Kalshi-centric sibling page for near-certainty-cap economics on the other platform.
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