When odds move before a news event, everyone's first instinct is "insiders." Sometimes that's true. More often, it's one of three other things. Here's the taxonomy.
Check market volume
Under $50M total volume → thin liquidity is the likely explanation. Single large orders move thin books dramatically without any special information.
Check correlated markets
Did oil, defense stocks, or safe-haven FX move in the same direction at the same time? If yes → correlated market repricing by algorithms is the leading explanation.
Check the public signal timeline
Was there analyst discussion, leaked documents, or visible military prep in the public record before the move? If yes → OSINT synthesis is the leading explanation.
If none of the above explain the move
Then the pattern is consistent with MNPI. Still alleged unless enforcement action follows — but worth watching for CFTC investigation.
Price alone never tells you which. That's the honest answer.
