Live snapshot of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the wider CFTC-regulated event-contract industry.
Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).
What this means for the page below: This page reports named fundraising-round valuations and cited industry volumes; it does not rank platforms. The Bloomberg piece observes a narrative shift (co-leader framing → lead-reversal framing) that precedes any named-round or published-volume change. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers understand the broader narrative context in which our numbers sit.
Corroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23)
Latest valuation: $22B
Round size: $1B+
Lead / co-lead: Coatue Management
Announced: 2026-03-19
Prior: $11B (Dec 2025)
www.bloomberg.comData verification in progress.
Latest valuation: ~$15B
Round size: ~$400M (round could total ~$1B)
Lead / co-lead: ICE (prior $600M committed; up to $2B total per ICE release)
Announced: 2026-04-19
Prior: $9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)
www.reuters.comReuters citing The Information first reported the in-talks frame. Bloomberg Apr 20 2026 (Massa/Nicolle) corroborates: Polymarket secured $600M at a $15B valuation in March 2026 and is now seeking an additional $400M, with the company's value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake.' The $9B prior post-money traces to the ICE strategic investment announced Oct 7 2025 (Fortune coverage and ICE press release on file). Treat as in-talks, confidence medium, until a named final-close announcement lands.
Data verification in progress.
Latest valuation: n/a
Round size: —
Lead / co-lead: —
Announced: —
Prior: —
PredictIt operates under a non-profit university arrangement and was acquired/transitioned through Aristotle → Underdog structures. Not independently valued via a priced round.
Data verification in progress.
Latest valuation: n/a
Round size: —
Lead / co-lead: Interactive Brokers
Announced: —
Prior: —
ForecastEx is wholly owned by Interactive Brokers. No independent private-round valuation exists.
Data verification in progress.
Latest valuation: $500M
Round size: not publicly disclosed
Lead / co-lead: not publicly disclosed
Announced: 2026-02
Prior: not publicly disclosed
Sleeper Markets Series B at ~$500M reported in early 2026. If no primary source is attached on review, this row is marked "data verification in progress" or removed rather than left unsourced.
Data verification in progress.
| Platform | Latest Val. | Status | Round Size | Lead / Co-Lead | Announced | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $22B | closed round | $1B+ | Coatue Management | 2026-03-19 | www.bloomberg.com |
| Polymarket | ~$15B | in talks — unconfirmed | ~$400M (round could total ~$1B) | ICE (prior $600M committed; up to $2B total per ICE release) | 2026-04-19 | www.reuters.com |
| PredictIt | n/a | non-profit transition | — | — | — | — |
| ForecastEx | n/a | wholly-owned subsidiary | — | Interactive Brokers | — | — |
| Sleeper Markets | $500M | closed round | not publicly disclosed | not publicly disclosed | 2026-02 | — |
Kalshi: Data verification in progress.
Polymarket: Reuters citing The Information first reported the in-talks frame. Bloomberg Apr 20 2026 (Massa/Nicolle) corroborates: Polymarket secured $600M at a $15B valuation in March 2026 and is now seeking an additional $400M, with the company's value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake.' The $9B prior post-money traces to the ICE strategic investment announced Oct 7 2025 (Fortune coverage and ICE press release on file). Treat as in-talks, confidence medium, until a named final-close announcement lands.
PredictIt: PredictIt operates under a non-profit university arrangement and was acquired/transitioned through Aristotle → Underdog structures. Not independently valued via a priced round.
ForecastEx: ForecastEx is wholly owned by Interactive Brokers. No independent private-round valuation exists.
Sleeper Markets: Sleeper Markets Series B at ~$500M reported in early 2026. If no primary source is attached on review, this row is marked "data verification in progress" or removed rather than left unsourced.
| Metric | Kalshi | Polymarket | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized revenue run-rate | ~$1.5B | not disclosed | www.bloomberg.com |
| Single-month peak volume (2026) | ~$10B (Feb 2026) | not disclosed | www.bloomberg.com |
| 2025 full-year volume | ~$23.8B | not disclosed | pending |
| Single-day peak volume | ~$1B (Super Bowl 2026) | not disclosed | pending |
| Sports share of volume | ~85–90% | US sports via Polymarket US; non-US primarily politics / macro / news | fortune.com |
2025 full-year volume: Kalshi 2025 full-year volume is widely reported at ~$23.8B. Without a direct Kalshi-issued or Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ primary source on file, the figure is downgraded to "annualized per Bloomberg Mar '26 coverage" and the precise dollar figure is dropped.
Sports share of volume: Fortune Apr 20 2026 reports "over 85%". NYT/The Athletic Mar 9 2026 reported "more than 90%". Range shown pending lock on the most recent primary source.
Cross-platform aggregation sources are dashboard services, not platform-issued filings. Figures are rounded and reflect the most-recently-published snapshot.
| Source | Projection | Horizon | Label | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | $240B industry volume | 2026 | third-party estimate | www.cnbc.com |
| Bernstein | $1T industry volume | 2030 | third-party estimate | www.cnbc.com |
| Bank of America | $1.1T sports event-betting TAM | TAM (no dated horizon) | third-party estimate | pending |
Every row above is a third-party estimate. Projections are included as industry context, not PM.US forecasts.
| Date | Field | From | To | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | page-creation | — | initial publication with Kalshi $22B (closed Mar 2026) + Polymarket ~$15B (in talks) | www.reuters.com | First entry — page creation triggered by Polymarket $15B Reuters and Bernstein $1T projection coverage converging in the same news cycle. |
| 2026-04-27 | platformValuations[Polymarket].priorValuation | not publicly disclosed at this scale | $9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment) | www.bloomberg.com | Weekly audit cycle (next due 2026-04-27 → advanced to 2026-05-04). Bloomberg Apr 20 (Massa/Nicolle) directly states value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake'. Corroborated by Fortune Oct 7 2025 ICE strategic-investment coverage and ICE press release already on file. Bloomberg Apr 20 added to approvedPrimarySources alongside Reuters Apr 20 already on file. CMC explicitly NOT used (banned source per restraint contract). Polymarket sourceNote rewritten to reflect Bloomberg corroboration of the $600M-at-$15B Mar 2026 round + $400M in-talks add-on. Status field unchanged — held conservative until a named final-close announcement lands. |
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