What they are, how they work, who regulates them, and whether this is gambling — a straight answer without the sales pitch.
Platforms
6+
Regulation
CFTC
Min Deposit
$1
Payout
$1/share
The key takeaway from this page
What prediction markets actually are
A prediction market is a contract that pays $1 if something happens and $0 if it doesn't. If the contract is trading at 72¢, the market is pricing the event at about a 72% chance. You're not betting against a house — you're trading against other people.
$1
Event happens
$0
Doesn't happen
72¢
= 72% probability
The price IS the probability. Buy at 72¢ → profit 28¢ if it happens, lose 72¢ if it doesn't.
3 steps to understand the mechanics
Every prediction market follows the same basic pattern. You pick an event, buy contracts at a price that reflects the probability, and collect $1 per contract if you're right.
Choose an upcoming event with a Yes/No outcome — like 'Will the Fed cut rates in June?' Every contract has a deadline and written resolution rules.
Pay 72¢ per share. If the event happens, each share pays $1.00, so your gain is 28¢. If it doesn't, you lose the 72¢ you paid. You choose how many shares to buy.
When the deadline passes, the contract resolves. Winning shares pay $1. Losing shares pay $0. Platforms may charge a fee depending on the market and platform rules.
The honest comparison
How it's like gambling
How it's different
The law treats prediction markets as commodity futures, not gambling. Your personal opinion may differ — and that's a legitimate position. Full comparison →
The CFTC — same agency that oversees CME Group
Short answer: the same regulator that oversees CME Group futures markets.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the same agency that oversees CME Group
Kalshi holds a full DCM + DCO license. Polymarket operates via QCX LLC (d/b/a Polymarket US).
All regulated platforms require identity verification before you can trade.
The CFTC is the same regulator overseeing commodity and futures markets. Prediction markets on licensed exchanges are event contracts — a legal instrument with defined federal oversight. State-by-state access varies. See the full regulatory landscape →
3 platforms most beginners choose
Three platforms most beginners start with — each for different reasons:
kalshi
Most variety, full CFTC exchange license
Broad market selection across politics, economics, sports, weather, and culture. A natural starting point if you want a regulated U.S. platform.
Fees: Formula-based taker fee on entry
polymarket
Highest volume on elections and macro events
Often where traders concentrate around elections and macro events. It uses USDC, so access and onboarding differ by state and product.
Fees: Probability-based taker fees across most categories. Dynamic rates peak at 50% probability.
robinhood
Easiest onboarding if you already have the app
Kalshi-powered markets inside the Robinhood app. If you already use Robinhood, it's usually the simplest place to try a first trade.
Fees: $0.01 Robinhood commission + $0.01 Kalshi exchange fee = $0.02 total per contract per side
What people get wrong — and the honest version
Each guide covers one concept clearly
How Prediction Markets Work
The mechanics: contracts, settlement, liquidity, and how prices get set.
How to Read a Price
What 72¢ actually means, when prices get unreliable, and how to sanity-check them.
Why Odds Change
Hard information, large orders, time decay, and related market signals.
How Markets Settle
Resolution sources, settlement mechanics, and what happens when platforms disagree.
When Resolution Goes Wrong
Dispute windows, controversial cases, and how to track down the evidence.
Gambling vs. Investing
The honest comparison — where the line is and where it gets blurry.
Check availability before signing up
Not available in all states.
Regulated prediction markets are federally legal, but some states restrict access to certain platforms. Availability can change as regulation evolves, so check before you fund an account.
6 common questions answered
