When a prediction market resolves in a way you didn't expect, here's where to look — source documents, dispute processes, and resolution history for Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, and PredictIt.
Platforms Covered
4
Known Cases
5
Source Categories
6
Read Time
10 min
The key takeaway from this page
Step-by-step investigation guide
When a market resolves unexpectedly, here's where to find the evidence — on every platform. This page gives you the exact steps, source documents, and dispute channels for each CFTC-regulated platform.
Platform trust scores at a glance
Elevated Dispute Risk — known mention-market controversy, single-source weather/crypto
Oracle-based (UMA) — transparent dispute mechanism, verifiable on-chain
Low Dispute History — IBKR-backed, institutional standards
Transparent — long track record, detailed public ruleset
Trigger → Evidence → Outcome
TRIGGER
Event occurs or market deadline expires
EVIDENCE
Platform collects data from the named resolution source
OUTCOME
Resolution is posted — dispute window opens
Platform-specific dispute steps
Resolution Authority
Kalshi Operations Team (CFTC DCM)
Dispute Window
Dispute window: see Kalshi platform rules. Typically a short window post-resolution — check your contract's resolution criteria tab for exact timing.
Market Rules tab → Resolution Criteria
Every Kalshi market has a Rules tab. Open the market and click Rules to see the exact resolution source named.
OpenResolution Notice
After settlement, Kalshi emails traders with a resolution notice. Check your Kalshi-linked inbox.
OpenCFTC Public Record
As a registered DCM, Kalshi submits annual compliance filings. Long-form, but available as public record.
OpenOfficial Support
If the in-app dispute flow does not resolve the issue, contact the platform's official support channel and keep a copy of the contract rules plus your evidence URL.
OpenMarket resolved based on Kalshi Operations team judgment on a single media source. Traders disputed whether the named source was sufficient under contract rules.
Market reportedly remained open while resolution criteria were already known internally. See r/Kalshi for ongoing community discussion. Neutral framing: no independent resolution of the dispute.
Market resolution tied to Coinbase Pro balance figures. Traders questioned whether the exchange price used matched the published resolution criteria exactly.
Where each platform gets its data
| Category | Kalshi Source | Polymarket Source | Match? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | Official league/governing body | UMA oracle / Official league | ✅ Usually aligned |
| Politics | AP race call or official canvass | AP or official government declaration | ✅ Often aligned |
| Weather | NOAA ASOS station (single station) | Varies by market (Weather.com, other) | ⚠️ DIFFERS — check each market |
| Crypto | CF Benchmarks RTI (60-second avg) | Varies: Chainlink feed (BTC up/down) or Binance 1m High (BTC price touch) | ⚠️ DIFFERS — verify per-market before trading |
| Mention Markets | Kalshi Ops review of named transcript | Varies / UMA operator | ⚠️ SUBJECTIVE — human judgment |
Source data derived from platform resolution rules documentation. Verify per-market before trading — individual markets may differ from category defaults. Check fee comparison and state availability before opening a position.
"Did X say Y?" markets depend on: which transcript is used, which timestamp, which speaker attribution, and whether paraphrase counts as a mention. Platforms can disagree on all four — and often do. Kalshi Operations resolves these via a single human reviewer with no automatic fallback. For a full breakdown of oracle types, see the oracle transparency guide.
See ContractSettlementComparePage for cross-platform settlement rule differences6 common questions answered
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