You know odds. You know spreads. Prediction markets are not sports betting — here is what to expect.
Prediction Market
60 cents = 60% implied probability. No vig baked in.
Sportsbook
-150 American odds = ~60% implied probability, but with vig already included in the line.
Prediction Market
0–2% trading fee per trade, charged separately. Some platforms charge nothing at resolution.
Sportsbook
4–10% vig baked into every line. You never see it itemized — it is just built into the spread.
Prediction Market
Politics, economics, weather, entertainment, sports. Events with clear yes/no resolution criteria.
Sportsbook
Primarily sports and entertainment outcomes with point-spread structures.
Prediction Market
Contract wording defines resolution. Read the criteria before you place — same event can resolve differently on different platforms depending on exact wording.
Sportsbook
Sportsbook sets and interprets payout rules. You trust the house.
Prediction Market
CFTC-regulated prediction markets may be treated as Section 1256 derivatives (Form 1099-B, capital gains rates) — not gambling income. Verify with a tax professional.
Sportsbook
Sportsbook winnings are gambling income (Form W-2G for qualifying wins). Different from PM tax treatment.
Try DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel Predicts — familiar UX, CFTC-regulated via CME Group. Your existing account may already have prediction markets enabled.
Try Robinhood Prediction Markets — zero friction, powered by Kalshi infrastructure.
Try Kalshi or Interactive Brokers ForecastEx — widest market selection, deepest order books.
Try Polymarket — crypto-native, USDC-based, US access via Polymarket US (QCX LLC) (CFTC-authorized). Best for geopolitical and global events.
⚠️ Near-Certainty Contracts Are Not Free Money
A 98-cent YES contract feels like a -5000 moneyline — a guaranteed win. It is not. Thin order books mean you may not fill at that price, and the implied 2% loss risk is real. Do not size them like sure things.
Why Near-Certainty Bets Are Not Free Money →⚠️ Contract Wording IS the Line
The resolution criteria define what you are buying. The same real-world event can resolve YES on one platform and NO on another if the contract wording differs. Read before you place.
See Contract Settlement Comparison →⚠️ Taxes Are Different — Check Before Filing
PM winnings on CFTC-regulated platforms may be derivative income, not gambling income. This can be better or worse depending on your tax situation. Do not assume sportsbook rules apply.
Prediction Market Tax Guide →Full guide to Kalshi: markets, fees, and how to get started.
Why 98-cent contracts are not as safe as they look.
How prediction market winnings are taxed vs sportsbook winnings.
Compare all prediction market platforms side by side.
The legal and regulatory answer.
Find out if prediction markets are available in your state.
