You sold early, or you held and the price recovered, but your net was lower than expected. Here's the full anatomy: bid/ask spread, exit fees, and path dependence — the three costs that hit when you exit before resolution.
TL;DR — Why your payout dropped even though the probability came back
Two separate costs hit when you sell early: the bid/ask spread (the market maker takes a cut on your exit price) and path dependence (the platform charges a fee based on what you originally paid, not the current price). If the market moved against you and then recovered, you already paid path costs on the way down — the round-trip hurts more than a clean hold.
This page explains each cost separately so you can decide when cashing out actually makes sense.
This is why users say "the probability came back but my payout is still lower than what I put in."
You buy at 65¢
You pay $650 for 1,000 contracts at 65¢ each. The platform records your cost basis.
Price drops to 45¢
The market moves against you. Your position is now worth $450 at market value — a $200 unrealized loss.
Price recovers to 65¢
Good news: the probability came back. But you haven't realized any loss yet — your cost basis is still 65¢.
You sell at 63¢ (bid price)
The displayed price is 65¢ but the best bid is 63¢. You receive $630 for 1,000 contracts.
Platform deducts exit fee
On platforms with formula fees, the fee is calculated on the sale price and quantity. Even a small fee on 1,000 contracts adds up. (Kalshi's fee depends on the odds — the closer to 50/50, the higher the fee, max 1.75¢.)
You net less than you paid
Even though the probability recovered to your entry price, the spread + fees on exit left you with a small loss. Path dependence in action.
The same mechanics produce very different outcomes depending on your entry price, current price, and direction.
Entry
55¢
Mid Price
72¢
Best Bid
71¢
Qty
500
Paid
$275
Received
$355
Fee
~$2.50
Early exit works here — the price moved enough to absorb the spread and fee. You locked in a gain instead of waiting for resolution risk.
Entry
65¢
Mid Price
65¢
Best Bid
63¢
Qty
1,000
Paid
$650
Received
$630
Fee
~$4.00
Even though the market recovered to your entry price, the spread cost 2¢/contract and the fee cost ~$4. You lose $24 on a "flat" market. Hold to resolution if you still believe.
Entry
70¢
Mid Price
30¢
Best Bid
29¢
Qty
200
Paid
$140
Received
$58
Fee
~$0.85
Painful exit. But if you believe the market will continue falling toward 0¢, selling at 29¢ and recovering $57 is better than losing all $140 at resolution.
Most users think their payout dropped because of one thing. It's usually a combination of three distinct mechanisms. Naming them separately is the first step to understanding your exit.
There's no universal rule, but these decision signals cover the majority of situations.
Not all platforms work the same way. Your exit options depend on the platform model.
| Platform | Model | Early Exit | Exit Fee | Spread Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CLOB (central limit order book) | Yes — sell at market or limit any time before resolution | ≤1.75¢/contract (formula-based) In plain English: Kalshi's fee depends on the odds — the closer to 50/50, the higher the fee (max 1.75¢). | Full order book visible — you see bids and asks |
| Polymarket | CLOB (central limit order book) | Yes — sell via limit order | Sports 0.75% peak; Crypto 1.80% peak; Politics/Finance/Tech 1.00%; most fee-free at extremes Most bets cost nothing to exit. Some categories (crypto, sports) add a small percentage fee. | CLOB — check order book depth before large sales |
| Robinhood | Via Kalshi CLOB (Robinhood subset) | Yes — same mechanics as Kalshi | $0.02/contract ($0.01 RH + $0.01 Kalshi) A flat 2¢ fee per contract every time you trade — easy to calculate. | Order book visible via Kalshi feed |
| FanDuel Predicts | Fixed-odds style | Limited — check platform for current availability | 2% of potential payout You pay 2% of whatever you could win. On a $1 payout that's 2¢. | Spread not directly visible; margin baked into price |
Fee data sourced from official platform documentation. Verify current fee schedules on each platform before trading.
