The number on your screen might be correct — just showing something different from what you expect. Here's how to read it, and what actually signals a bug.
Most "wrong" numbers are technically correct but showing something the user doesn't expect. Here's how to diagnose each one.
What you see
P&L shows a loss on a contract you think resolved in your favor.
What's actually happening
The contract closed but hasn't processed yet. Platforms batch settlements — Kalshi processes within hours, but Coinbase (powered by Kalshi) can take several days to reflect in your brokerage account balance.
How to tell
Is there a pending payout in your activity log? If yes, wait for settlement to clear.
When to worry
If 7+ days have passed and no activity log entry exists for a resolved contract, contact platform support with the contract name and resolution date.
What you see
Portfolio shows big losses even though contracts haven't resolved.
What's actually happening
Some platforms show mark-to-market P&L — the current market value of your positions if you sold right now, not what you'll receive at resolution. If you bought YES at 70¢ and it's now trading at 55¢, you're showing a paper loss even if the market resolves YES at $1.
How to tell
Compare your 'open positions' value against your actual contract purchase price.
When to worry
If a contract has already resolved and you still see an unrealized loss — that's a display bug, not normal behavior.
What you see
You won the bet — the real-world event clearly resolved in your favor — but you got back less than $1 per share, or the market settled away from where it was trading.
What's actually happening
If trading was halted or a contract was voided (due to scratched player, event cancellation, or platform sole discretion), some platforms settle at the "last fair price" — meaning wherever the market was trading when it was halted — NOT at YES ($1) or NO ($0).
This is in the platform terms of service but almost no user reads it before trading.
How to tell
Check your contract's resolution reason. Look for 'void', 'halted', or 'sole discretion' language in the activity log.
When to worry
Last fair price settlement is NOT a bug — it's a disclosed policy. If you were charged 'sole discretion' without a contract voiding reason, file a CFTC complaint.
What you see
Prediction market winnings don't appear in your main account balance; or your brokerage balance looks right but your PM P&L summary looks wrong.
What's actually happening
Coinbase routes prediction markets through Kalshi's exchange infrastructure. Robinhood operates through its own CFTC-registered derivatives entity — but in both cases, settlement flows back to your primary brokerage account, not a separate PM ledger. The "prediction markets" P&L tab often shows ONLY open/settled contract data from the underlying exchange layer — while cash is in the brokerage.
If the number that looks wrong is actually on an IBKR or ForecastEx tax document, that is a different problem than a live P&L display. Use the ForecastEx 1099 reconciliation page for the reporting side of the confusion.
For Coinbase: Ledger routing pending verification
For Robinhood: Ledger routing pending verification
How to tell
Check both your main account cash balance AND your prediction markets tab separately. They may show different things for different reasons.
When to worry
If neither location shows your expected payout after 7+ days of a confirmed resolution, escalate to platform support.
The exact ledger routing for Coinbase and Robinhood (where settled funds appear) is pending verification from platform help docs. Treat platform-specific claims above as general guidance until confirmed.
What you see
The chart shows 75¢ when the contract resolved — but your payout reflects the $1.00 YES or $0.00 NO resolution, not the chart price. So the chart 'lied.'
What's actually happening
After resolution, some platforms continue displaying the last traded price, not the settlement value. These are two different things. The last traded price was the market's PROBABILITY estimate. Settlement is binary: YES = $1.00, NO = $0.00. The chart showing 75¢ at close doesn't mean you got 75¢. It means the market put 75% odds on this outcome before it was confirmed.
How to tell
Check your activity log for the actual settlement transaction, not the price chart. The settlement entry will show the binary payout amount.
When to worry
This is almost always a display convention, not an error. Only escalate if your actual cash payout in the activity log doesn't match YES ($1) or NO ($0).
Each platform handles P&L display and settlement differently. The table below uses verified data where available, and flags fields awaiting confirmation.
| Platform | P&L Display | Settlement Speed | PM Balance Location | Display Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Mark-to-market | Data pending verification | Kalshi portfolio | Data pending verification |
| Polymarket | Unrealized MTM | Data pending verification | Polymarket wallet (USDC) | Data pending verification |
| Robinhood | Limited PM history | Data pending verification | Cash destination pending verification | Data pending verification |
| Coinbase | Kalshi-layer only | Data pending verification | Cash destination pending verification | Data pending verification |
| FanDuel Predicts | CME-layer | Data pending verification | FanDuel Predicts account balance | Data pending verification |
Cells marked "Data pending verification" are awaiting confirmation from platform help docs and direct observation. These fields will be updated once verified.
Four real complaint scenarios — with honest guidance on whether to wait, escalate to support, or file a CFTC complaint.
Most of what looks wrong is a display issue, not a funds issue. Unsettled, unrealized, last-traded vs. settled — these are all accounting conventions, not evidence that funds are missing.
Coinbase prediction market settlement has generated a high volume of legitimate complaints. The fund routing through Kalshi infrastructure into a Coinbase brokerage account creates delays and UI inconsistencies that are genuinely confusing.
Kalshi, Coinbase's PM layer, and FanDuel Predicts are CFTC-regulated. If funds are genuinely missing after 7+ days and a confirmed resolution: escalate. File a complaint. You have rights.
A confusing display convention is not the same as the platform stealing your money. Know the difference, use the right escalation path, and document everything.
File a CFTC complaint at: cftc.gov/complaint
Provide: contract name, resolution date, expected payout, and a screenshot of the balance showing the discrepancy.
If this page solved the panic but not the full confusion, read the adjacent explainers.
Sibling deep-dive on Polymarket's four-layer settlement — app, backend, Polygon chain, USDC wallet — and how to tell which layer is wrong.
If a CFTC-regulated platform voided your contract, understand the regulatory framework first.
Specific deep-dive into why Coinbase balances can look negative after prediction market settlement.
Understand when market prices reflect real signal vs. noise.
Full review of Kalshi: fees, settlement mechanics, and how to read your portfolio.
Companion guide focused on display conventions vs. actual missing funds.
End-to-end guide: from contract resolution to cash in your account.
See how platform fees change your net P&L after settlement and trading costs.
Understand how resolution, settlement timing, and payout rules actually work.
Follow where your funds go after resolution — and why cash-outs can look delayed.
If the number looks wrong: check the activity log first. Most "wrong" numbers are unsettled, unrealized, or last-traded — not missing. Escalate only when the activity log shows a resolved contract with no corresponding cash movement after 7+ days.
